Bitcoin's price beside the factors a fixed set of rules reads with it: macro (Fed balance sheet, Treasury account, net liquidity, the dollar, the 30-year Treasury yield), markets (the S&P 500 fund and a long Treasury fund), on-chain (hash rate, volume), BTC perpetual futures positioning (funding rate and open interest), and 30-day at-the-money implied volatility
Bitcoin Price: Current Bitcoin spot price in US dollars, updated every 2 minutes (CoinGecko or Coinbase; each value names its own) Source: CoinGecko or Coinbase, Every 2 minutes.
Bitcoin Hash Rate: Total Bitcoin network computational hash rate in EH/s (mempool.space) Source: mempool.space, Daily (read every 30 minutes, one figure a day).
Bitcoin 24h Volume: Total Bitcoin trading volume over the past 24 hours in USD (CoinGecko) Source: CoinGecko, Every 30 minutes.
BTC Perp Funding Rate (OKX): The funding rate OKX publishes for its BTC-USDT perpetual swap, per 8 hour period. Carried inside the Bitcoin momentum and factors briefings.
BTC Perp Open Interest (OKX): The open interest OKX publishes for its BTC-USDT perpetual swap: the contracts outstanding. Carried inside the Bitcoin momentum and factors briefings.
BTC 30d ATM IV: Deribit's Volatility Index for Bitcoin (DVOL): the 30 day implied volatility priced in Deribit's Bitcoin options, annualized, in percent. Carried inside the Bitcoin factors briefing.
Fed Balance Sheet: Federal Reserve total assets, in millions of US dollars: the Wednesday level from the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 release, published each Thursday afternoon. Source: Federal Reserve Board (H.4.1), Weekly, each Thursday evening.
Treasury General Account: The Treasury General Account at the Federal Reserve, in millions of US dollars: the week average from the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 release, published each Thursday afternoon. Source: Federal Reserve Board (H.4.1), Weekly, each Thursday evening.
Net Liquidity: Net liquidity proxy - Fed balance sheet minus reverse repo and Treasury account balances Source: PreReason's calculation from the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 (balance sheet, TGA) and the New York Fed (reverse repo), Recomputed hourly; its inputs weekly (H.4.1) and each business day (reverse repo).
UUP (US Dollar ETF): Share price of the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), a proxy for the dollar index (DXY), not the index level (updates every 15 min) Source: Finnhub, Every 15 min (market hours).
30-Year Treasury Yield: The 30-year Treasury par yield, in percent, from the US Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Business days, priced at about 3:30 in the afternoon, New York time. Long-end real growth and inflation risk premium. Read from FRED's copy of these rates from May 2023 until 2026-09-28.
SPY (S&P 500 ETF): SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust - proxy for S&P 500 index (updates every 15 min) Source: Finnhub, Every 15 min (market hours).
TLT (Long Treasury ETF): iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF - long-duration Treasury bond proxy (updates every 15 min during market hours)
Hash Ribbon: Hash rate momentum indicator - 30-day vs 60-day moving average ratio Source: PreReason's calculation from mempool.space's daily hash rate (the ratio of its 30 day and 60 day averages), Recomputed hourly; its input daily.
Net Liquidity: Net liquidity proxy - Fed balance sheet minus reverse repo and Treasury account balances Source: PreReason's calculation from the Federal Reserve Board's H.4.1 (balance sheet, TGA) and the New York Fed (reverse repo), Recomputed hourly; its inputs weekly (H.4.1) and each business day (reverse repo).
BTC Perp Open Interest (contracts): Open interest expressed in BTC contracts rather than dollars (okx-btc-open-interest / bitcoin-price, timestamp-matched). The stored USD figure rises mechanically with price, so a rising dollar reading can coincide with contracts being closed.
BTC Perp Positioning Regime: Which of four positioning regimes the last 24h sits in, from the sign of the price move against the sign of the contract change. +2 new longs, +1 short covering, -1 long liquidation, -2 new shorts, 0 no clear regime. Sign is tape direction; magnitude is whether leverage is building or closing.
BTC Perp Funding Z-Score (30d): Standard-deviation distance of the current 8-hour perpetual funding rate from its trailing 30-day mean. Reads whether a price move was paid for by crowded leverage or happened without one.
Correlations
Measured over 90 days:
Bitcoin Price and Net Liquidity
Bitcoin Price and SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
Bitcoin Price and UUP (US Dollar ETF)
Bitcoin Price and BTC Perp Funding Rate (OKX)
Bitcoin Price and BTC 30d ATM IV
Bitcoin Price and TLT (Long Treasury ETF)
Questions about the Factor Attribution briefing
What is in the Factor Attribution briefing?
Bitcoin's price beside the factors a fixed set of rules reads with it: macro (Fed balance sheet, Treasury account, net liquidity, the dollar, the 30-year Treasury yield), markets (the S&P 500 fund and a long Treasury fund), on-chain (hash rate, volume), BTC perpetual futures positioning (funding rate and open interest), and 30-day at-the-money implied volatility. It holds 18 metrics and 6 correlation pairs over 90 days, each figure with the date it describes and the source it came from.
Which plan reads the Factor Attribution briefing?
The Pro plan reads it, and every plan above Pro.
How does an AI agent read the Factor Attribution briefing?
Over MCP, with the get_context tool and the briefing id btc.factors. Over REST, with GET https://api.prereason.com/api/context?briefing=btc.factors and an API key, as Markdown (the default) or JSON (format=json).
Can I read the Factor Attribution briefing as of a past date?
Yes, with date=YYYY-MM-DD. A dated read serves only periods released by that date, and each figure says when it was public, or that it may be a later revision. How far back depends on the plan; on the Pro plan: All available data.
Where does the data in the Factor Attribution briefing come from?
Each figure names its source and the date it describes. The data sources page (https://www.prereason.com/data-sources) lists every source PreReason reads.
API: GET /api/context?briefing=btc.factors
Format options: ?format=markdown (default) or ?format=json