Introduced Control-WS arm. Treatment beats web search by +2.24pp. Proves structured analysis > raw information
| Arm | Return |
|---|---|
| Treatment (Briefings) | +3.18% |
| Control (Price Only) | -9.51% |
| Placebo (Stale Briefings) | -1.55% |
| Control-WS (Web Search) | +0.94% |
Added 4th arm (Control-WS) that receives web search results instead of PreReason briefings. Tests whether the value is in the analysis, not just having information.
Same window as Run 5: Sep 2025 through Mar 6, 2026. BTC dropped -34.3% from $108K to $71K. This run introduced the 4th arm (Control-WS) to test whether the treatment's edge came from having information at all, or specifically from PreReason's structured analysis.
The headline result is the treatment-vs-control-WS delta: +2.24pp. The Control-WS arm, which received live web search results instead of PreReason briefings, returned +0.94%. This means having raw, real-time information gets you most of the way (control-WS beat price-only control by +10.45pp), but structured analysis adds a further edge on top.
The Control-WS arm's trading pattern was notably different from both treatment and control. It made more trades (higher frequency) and showed a pattern of reacting to headlines: going short after negative news, then reversing quickly. Its +0.94% return was respectable, but the higher trade count meant more fees and more whipsaw losses.
The treatment arm returned +3.18%, lower than Run 5's +8.46% despite the same briefings and window. This variance is within expected bounds for a 187-tick run. The treatment arm missed the Mar 5 bounce that it caught in Run 5, likely due to slightly different prompt sequencing in the 4-arm setup.
(3 more observations in the full report)
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